How underwriting performance is typically presented The Decision Question Is the portfolio performing in line with the priced expectation, and is the signal credible enough to act on? Underwriting committees usually want to know: Are we above or below target? Is it material enough to matter? Is the signal reliable or noise? Default Practice The most common chart (shown per product / line): Single line of ultimate loss ratio over time vs a target or benchmark. Why this works:

The Decision Question In edition 3 we concluded that the scatter signals when a question should be asked but does not answer it. This edition addresses one of those unanswered questions: how did each accident year evolve? The Dumbbell View of Revision Behaviour This visual gives a view of ultimate estimates by accident year, showing the initial view, the current view, and the movement between them. What This Makes Visible Direction of Revision by Accident Year For each accide

The Decision Question This edition looks at how to show the actual experience (or new ultimate) versus the expected ultimate (previous ultimate) claims when the question is: Can I trust the reserving outcomes? Are predictions broadly calibrated or are there systematic bias? Audience: Management Default Practice Scatterplot with the expected / predicted ultimate on x-axis and the actual or updated expected on the y-axis. Each point typically represents a total reserve for a

This edition explores alternative views for link ratios that surface variability, structure, and influence more directly.