The Decision Question In edition 3 we concluded that the scatter signals when a question should be asked but does not answer it. This edition addresses one of those unanswered questions: how did each accident year evolve? The Dumbbell View of Revision Behaviour This visual gives a view of ultimate estimates by accident year, showing the initial view, the current view, and the movement between them. What This Makes Visible Direction of Revision by Accident Year For each accide

The Decision Question This edition looks at how to show the actual experience (or new ultimate) versus the expected ultimate (previous ultimate) claims when the question is: Can I trust the reserving outcomes? Are predictions broadly calibrated or are there systematic bias? Audience: Management Default Practice Scatterplot with the expected / predicted ultimate on x-axis and the actual or updated expected on the y-axis. Each point typically represents a total reserve for a

This edition explores alternative views for link ratios that surface variability, structure, and influence more directly.

Development patterns are familiar territory for actuaries. We calculate them, review them, debate them — and then often leave them behind, summarised in a sentence or relegated to an appendix. The challenge is rarely how to produce link ratios or development curves. It is deciding when they deserve attention, how they should be shown, and when saying less is actually clearer . This edition focuses on that decision. Rather than introducing new chart types, it steps back to ask