The Decision Question How much judgement sits beyond the observed development period, and how much reserve depends on it? Default Practice A familiar actuarial curve-fitting view places observed age-to-age paid development factors beside fitted curves. It shows whether the curve follows the late development pattern and how quickly it approaches one. Here, exponential and inverse-power curves are fitted to the same six annual intervals ending at 60–120 months, then extended be

Lower reported claim amounts can look like improving experience. If the selected development pattern slows from one valuation to the next, though, more reported-amount development remains at the same age. We examine what changed in the selection and whether first-report counts support a reporting-delay explanation. The Decision Question How did the selected reported-amount development pattern change between valuations, and do first-report counts support a reporting-delay expl

The booked claims reserve has fallen since the previous valuation. Payments explain much of the reduction, but the closing balance is higher than we expected a year ago. A reserve walk helps explain what changed. Closing the reserve for prior-period claims before adding the new period makes their development easier to assess. An expected closing marker shows whether the remaining reserve is in line with the previous valuation's expectations. The Decision Question What changed

Where is retention strengthening, and at what price? Pricing teams need to understand how customers respond to renewal prices. Retention and price change provide a useful starting point for that discussion. However, strong retention after an increase can still leave a group underpriced, while a group average can conceal customers whose renewal behaviour is changing. The Decision Question Which risk groups are retaining their customers at an adequate price, and where do we nee